A Clean Board?: Shifting Energy Politics of the Middle East
The Hollings Center for International Dialogue recently convened a wide-ranging conversation on the future of global energy geopolitics, featuring a presentation by Dr. John Bowlus, founder and director of Energy Straits, a scholar of Middle Eastern energy politics whose research focuses on the intersection of energy markets, regional strategy, and global power competition. This program continues the Hollings Center’s Young Professionals in International Relations Series (YPIR), a program designed to provide emerging scholars and practitioners with access to expert-led discussions on global issues. As part of this series, attendees were briefed on the Center’s thematic program areas and its broader commitment to nurturing the next generation of international affairs professionals.
Against this backdrop, Dr. Bowlus outlined his framework for understanding how energy continues to shape regional politics in the Middle East and the broader strategic priorities of major global powers.
Evolving Power Dynamics in the Middle East
Dr. Bowlus began by examining the shifting geopolitical landscape across the Middle East. He described a moment of retrenchment for Iran and Russia and the simultaneous rise in influence of Turkey, Israel, and key Gulf states. Energy, he argued, remains central to U.S. strategic objectives in the region—particularly its longstanding goal of preventing the emergence of a dominant Eurasian power and ensuring stable access to key energy supplies. He pointed to emerging opportunities for regional cooperation, including potential energy linkages between Turkey and Israel, while also noting the distinct approach of the current U.S. administration toward Middle Eastern policy.
Global Competition Between the U.S. and China
The discussion then broadened to the global level, where Dr. Bowlus highlighted the intensifying competition between the United States and China in the energy and technology sectors. The United States continues to prioritize oil and gas production, with increased emphasis on expanding output in the Western Hemisphere and prospects for new drilling projects in Alaska and Greenland. China, meanwhile, is positioning itself as the leader in renewable energy technologies. Rare earth minerals—an essential component of clean-energy supply chains—were identified as an area where China maintains overwhelming dominance. While Turkey may emerge as a modest contributor to rare earth refining, Dr. Bowlus noted that China’s stronghold in the sector is expected to endure for another decade.
Energy, Foreign Policy, and Emerging Technologies
Participants explored the long-term role of fossil fuels, with Dr. Bowlus projecting their relevance through the end of the century due to persistent demand for oil-based products. Discussions also addressed the interplay of water and energy systems, and the broader geopolitical consequences of the U.S.–China rivalry in clean-energy industries. Participants asked questions about shifting U.S. policy in the Middle East, alongside an assessment of how U.S. military posture and rising energy independence are reshaping traditional foreign-policy calculations.
Contested Energy Landscapes: Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean
Turning to Syria, Dr. Bowlus observed that American interests remain limited, constrained in part by financial pressures tied to U.S. debt levels. He noted that private American firms have shown interest in Syrian energy development, although regional politics—including Iran’s influence and environmental concerns related to Greek offshore prospects—make cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean improbable. He also emphasized the durability of global oil demand, driven not only by fuel consumption but by the continued necessity of petroleum-based materials.
New Realities in Global Energy Markets
The dialogue closed with reflections on two structural shifts currently reshaping global energy markets. First, the United States has transformed from a major oil importer to a significant exporter as a result of the shale revolution—altering its foreign-policy incentives and diminishing its reliance on Middle Eastern supply routes. Second, Qatar’s immense natural gas reserves and forthcoming investments position it as an increasingly consequential actor in the global energy system. Participants further noted Turkey’s potential role in rare earth mineral processing, though environmental concerns pose possible development limitations.
The conversation also touched on broader supply-chain reconfigurations, China’s rising energy demand, and the mixed effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia—an issue explored further in the the podcast series, The Sanctions Age. Together, these discussions underscored a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape in which shifting production patterns, technological competition, and regional realignments are redefining global energy politics and the foreign-policy strategies that accompany them.
